¿ËÈÕ£¬£¬£¬ngµç×ÓÓÎÏ·µØÀí¿ÆÑ§ÓëÍýÏëѧԺÁõСƽ½ÌÊÚÍŶÓÁªºÏ»ª¶«Ê¦·¶´óѧÀèÏĽÌÊÚÍŶӣ¬£¬£¬ÔÚNature CommunicationsÔÚÏß½ÒÏþÁËÌâΪ¡°Global Projections of Future Urban Land Expansion under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways¡±µÄÑо¿ÂÛÎÄ£¨Article£©¡£¸ÃÑо¿Ê״λùÓÚÕþ¸®¼äÌìÆø×ª±äרÃÅίԱ»á£¨IPCC£©×îÐµĹ²ÏíÉç»á¾¼Ã·¾¶£¨SSPs£©¶Ô2015~2100ÄêÈ«Çò³ÇÊÐÓõØÀ©ÕžÙÐÐÁË1km·Ö±æÂʵÄÇé¾°Ô¤²â£¬£¬£¬²¢ÆÊÎöÁËÆä¶ÔÁ¸Ê³Éú²úºÍ×ÔȻֲ±»´øÀ´µÄÓ°Ïì¡£
³ÇÊÐÓõØËäÈ»½öռ½µØÃæ»ýºÜСµÄÒ»²¿·Ö£¬£¬£¬µ«ÏÖÓÐÑо¿Åú×¢£¬£¬£¬³ÇÊÐÓõؼ°ÆäÀ©ÕÅ¿ÉÄܶÔÈ«ÇòÇéÐα¬·¢ÉîÔ¶Ó°Ïì¡£¶Ô³ÇÊÐÓõؿռäÃûÌþÙÐÐÔ¤²âÐèÒª½¨ÉèÄܹ»´ú±íδÀ´Éç»á¾¼ÃºÍÇéÐÎÌõ¼þµÄÇé¾°¡£ÏÖÔÚÒÑÓеÄÈ«Çò³ÇÊÐÓõØÔ¤²â²úÆ·£¬£¬£¬»òÔÚÇé¾°·½ÃæÑ¡ÓõÄÊǼòµ¥µÄ¡¢¡¢×Ô½ç˵µÄÇé¾°£¬£¬£¬µ¼Ö²úÆ·¼äÎÞ·¨¾ÙÐÐͳһµÄ¡¢¡¢¿É½ÏÁ¿µÄÑо¿£»»òÔÚ¿Õ¼ä·Ö±æÂÊÉϽÏΪ´Ö²Ú£¬£¬£¬¶àΪ10~50km·Ö±æÂÊ£¬£¬£¬µ¼Ö³ÇÊÐÓõؿռäϸ½Úɥʧ£¬£¬£¬ÎÞ·¨ÓÐÓ÷´Ó³³ÇÊÐÓõؿռäÃûÌõĶ¯Ì¬×ª±ä¡£Òò´Ë£¬£¬£¬¸ÃÑо¿½ÓÄÉIPCC×îÐÂÌá³öSSPsÇé¾°£¬£¬£¬Ê¹ÓÃÁõСƽ½ÌÊÚÌá³öµÄFLUSÍÁµØÊ¹ÓÃת±äÄ£×Ó£¬£¬£¬¶ÔδÀ´È«Çò³ÇÊÐÓõØÀ©ÕžÙÐÐÁË1km·Ö±æÂʵÄÇé¾°Ô¤²â£¨ÈçÏÂͼ£©¡£Ð§¹ûÅú×¢£¬£¬£¬²î±ð¿ªÕ¹Ë®Æ½µÄ¹ú¼Ò¶ÔÇé¾°µÄÏìÓ¦²»¾¡Ïàͬ£¬£¬£¬ÉõÖÁÏà·´£¬£¬£¬Ò»Ð©ÓÐÀûÓÚÅ¹ú¼Ò³ÇÊпªÕ¹µÄÇé¾°£¨ÈçSSP5£©£¬£¬£¬·´¶øµ¹ÔËÓÚµÍÊÕÈë¹ú¼ÒµÄ³ÇÊпªÕ¹¡£ÁíÍ⣬£¬£¬¸ÃÑо¿¶ÔһЩµØÇøÔÚδÀ´µÄһЩÇé¾°ÖзºÆðµÄÒòÉú³ÝïÔ̶øµ¼Ö·ºÆð³ÇÊÐËõ¶ÌѹÁ¦µÄÇéÐÎÒ²¾ÙÐÐÁËÆÊÎö¡£

SSP5Çé¾°ÏÂ2100ÄêÈ«ÇòºÍÈý¸öµä·¶ÇøÓòµÄ³ÇÊÐÓõØÄ£ÄâЧ¹û£º(a)Öйú¶«²¿£¬£¬£¬(b)ÃÀ¹ú¶«²¿£¬£¬£¬
(c)À¶¡ÃÀÖÞµÍÊÕÈë¹ú¼Ò
¸ÃÑо¿»¹ÆÊÎöÁËÓÉÓÚδÀ´³ÇÊÐÓõØÀ©Õŵ¼ÖµÄÁ¸Ê³²úÁ¿ËðʧµÄÇéÐΡ£Ô¤¼ÆÐÂÀ©ÕŵijÇÊÐÓõØÖÐÔ¼50~63%δÀ´×ÔÅ©Ìï¡£ÔÚ²»Ë¼Á¿ÓÉÓÚũҵÖÎÀíÒªÁìµÄ¸Ä±ä¶ø¿ÉÄÜÅâ³¥Ô¤ÆÚ²úÁ¿ËðʧµÄÇéÐÎÏ£¬£¬£¬È«ÇòÁ¸Ê³²úÁ¿½«Òò´ËϽµÔ¼1~4%¡£ÕâЩ²úÁ¿ËðʧÔÚ²»±ØÆäËûÁ¸Ê³µÄ²úÁ¿¾ÙÐÐÌî²¹µÄÇéÐÎÏ£¬£¬£¬½«Ó°ÏìÏ൱ÓÚÿÄê1.22~13.89ÒÚÈ˵ÄÁ¸Ê³ÐèÇó¡£Ð§¹û»¹ÏÔʾ£¬£¬£¬Å©ÌïËðʧÓëÁ¸Ê³²úÁ¿Ëðʧ֮¼ä²»¿É±ÈÀý£¬£¬£¬Õ¹ÏÖÁ˱£»¤·ÊÎÖºÍÓÅÖÊÅ©ÌïµÄÖ÷ÒªÐÔ¡£ÖÎÀíºÍºÏÀíÍýÏë³ÇÊпª·¢ËùÔÚºÍÁ÷³ÌÊÇïÔÌδÀ´Á¸Ê³Éú²úËðʧµÄÒªº¦²½·¥¡£
ÉÏÊöÑо¿»ñµÃÁ˹ú¼ÒÖØµãÑз¢ÍýÏë¡¢¡¢¹ú¼Ò×ÔÈ»¿ÆÑ§»ù½ðÖØµãÏîÄ¿¡¢¡¢ÃæÉÏÏîÄ¿µÈµÄÖ§³Ö¡£ngµç×ÓÓÎÏ·µØÀí¿ÆÑ§ÓëÍýÏëѧԺ²©Ê¿Éú³Â¹ãÕÕͬÑâΪ¸ÃÑо¿ÂÛÎĵĵÚÒ»×÷Õߣ¬£¬£¬»ª¶«Ê¦·¶´óѧÀèÏĽÌÊÚºÍngµç×ÓÓÎÏ·ÁõСƽ½ÌÊÚ¡¢¡¢³ÂÒÝÃô¸±½ÌÊÚΪ¸ÃÂÛÎĵÄÅäºÏͨѶ×÷Õß¡£
ÂÛÎÄÁ´½Ó£ºhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14386-x